Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
